Is it just me, or is the media rushing a bit too fast towards blaming Al Qaeda for the bombing in Bali? I'm suddenly reminded of the Anthrax scares in late 2001—which sort of dropped out of the news after it was realised it had nothing to do with the Middle East at all, and was probably being perpetrated by home-grown American lunatics.

• Al Qaeda have the resources. If they wanted to blow up a bunch of Aussies, they could have done it in Australia.
• Al Qaeda's issue: American “occupation” of Saudi Arabia.
• Al Qaeda's recent targets: US embassies in Africa. A US warship in Yemen. The World Trade Centre in New York (two attempts). <edit>The Pentagon</edit>. A Bali nightclub?
• The most likely outcome of this attack, economic problems for Indonesia as the tourist trade in Bali goes down the hole, just doesn't fit into what we know of their motives.
• Indonesia: 88% Muslim.
• Al Qaeda need to do something big against the USA to show they haven't been hurt by the war in Afghanistan. However many casualties there were, blowing up a nightclub in an out-of-the-way country does not fit the bill. If it were them, it would make them look weak, unable to stand up to their real enemy and looking for easier targets. That's an appearance they would desperately want to avoid giving.

I may be entirely wrong. But I think there's more than enough reason to keep our minds open, and not immediately write this off as just another Al Qaeda attack. It's much more likely a home-grown local issue, just like the Anthrax was in 2001.